Author: Daniel Parr, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx
Lithium metal batteries offer a revolutionary new avenue for the enhancement of modern battery technology. Current lithium-ion batteries utilize a graphite anode, which limits the battery’s maximum energy density. Energy density is a limiting factor in several key applications, most notably electric vehicles, where limited capacity means limited vehicle range. Current generation electric vehicles can achieve maximal ranges of around 400km. Using lithium metal batteries could offer a range enhancement of 50% or more. IDTechEx’s new report, “Lithium Metal Batteries 2025-2035: Technology, Players, and Forecasts” expects the lithium metal battery industry to exceed US$13 billion by 2035, with electric vehicle deployments making up around 78% of the market.
Lithium metal anodes offer the highest gravimetric energy density possible of any anode for batteries based on lithium-ion chemistry. As such, they have been a primary target for commercialization efforts. However, previous products failed due to the high instability of lithium metal anode batteries. Lithium dendrites are the major failure mechanism. Lithium metal is plated and stripped from the anode current collector through charging and discharging. Inhomogeneous plating leads to tendril-like formations on the surface of the current collector, which are known as lithium dendrites. These dendrites can pierce the solid electrolyte interface layer (SEI) and react with the electrolyte, losing active material. Over time, this limits battery lifetime and leads to early cell failure. Short circuits can also occur if the dendrites reach the cathode layer, rendering the battery useless.
An illustration of lithium metal dendrite formation. Source: IDTechEx
The challenge of lithium dendrites has led to slow development of the technology. Several solutions have been proposed to improve battery lifetime and performance. Separators can be used to prevent dendrites from reaching the electrolyte and regulate ion deposition and transfer through special coatings. Alternatively, a solid-state electrolyte can serve the same purpose, though it may limit interface conductivity. Lithium metal plating and stripping have also proven to be regulated by high temperature and pressure, though it could be challenging to integrate these into working conditions. Slow charging and fast discharging are also advantageous for lithium metal battery operation, though this is often at odds with consumer demand in the electric vehicle industry, where fast charging is desired. For many players, lifetime concerns are beginning to be solved, thanks to combining these approaches, and commercialization has begun.
There are three primary designs of interest for lithium metal batteries. The first two are differentiated by their electrolyte: solid-state and liquid. One of the major advantages of a solid-state battery system is the ability to enable lithium metal anodes. As such, many solid-state battery developers are expected to move towards lithium metal, with some already having successful products. Meanwhile, lithium metal batteries with liquid electrolytes have experienced slower development due to the challenge of lithium dendrites, though once developed, they are expected to offer higher specific energy, as well as potentially taking advantage of existing battery production infrastructure, which could reduce costs. Lithium-sulfur is the final lithium metal battery of interest, differentiated using a sulfur cathode rather than incumbent cathode technology (NMC and LFP). It offers higher gravimetric energy density, but an additional failure mechanism in the form of polysulfide shuttle. As such, its development is slow, and overall lifetime is expected to be even more limited than other lithium metal technologies.
Lithium metal batteries have many interesting applications due to their high energy density. Aviation, maritime, and defense could be especially interesting, as high energy density (specifically gravimetric energy density) is heavily favored for these applications. However, the size of potential deployments in these markets is relatively small, e.g., the unmanned aerial vehicle/drone market, which is expected to stay below 1 GWh for the next decade. Satellites could also be an interesting fit, though penetration into satellites is almost entirely dependent on SpaceX, which makes up more than 70% of satellites launched every year. As such, electric vehicles are expected to be the largest source of demand, and most lithium metal battery developers are focusing on this market.
Lithium metal batteries are well placed to see significant adoption in the next ten years. IDTechEx anticipates mass production of solid-state lithium metal in 2027/2028; of liquid electrolyte lithium metal in 2029/2030,6 and of lithium-sulfur in 2031/2032. Solid-state lithium metal is expected to remain the dominant market proportion throughout this period, making up over 70% of the total market by 2035.
To find out more about this IDTechEx report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/LMB.
For the full portfolio of energy storage and batteries market research available from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/ES. Downloadable sample pages are available for all IDTechEx reports.
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